Model Review: When Will Thunderstorms Come?

Alfred Pike

Alfred Pike

Alfred Pike
August 29, 2022 3:25 PM

Last update: August 29, 2022 4:14 PM

High pressure areas determine the weather, but occasionally depressions try to penetrate our environment. Read here if there are still showers on the program.

The main weather system on the weather map for Western Europe has been a high pressure area almost daily for the past weeks and months. During the past two months, it regularly generated a lot of summer heat. The sun also shone exuberantly and rain was often limited to a few (regional) showers that absolutely could not put an end to the drought. August will also go down in the books as a very warm, sunny and dry summer month. Sun and heat lovers who have been on holiday in their own country have enjoyed it, but a little rain would not be bad for the naturally. However, the question is whether we will really see drastic changes on the weather map in the coming days.

A powerful high pressure area will be over northern Europe on Thursday afternoon. We see a low-pressure area appearing near Iceland, but thanks to new high-pressure impulses, this system is quickly driven south.

The high pressure area mentioned earlier will be located between Iceland and Norway at the beginning of this week. Very cautiously, the core is moving more towards Scandinavia during the week, but the high pressure area looks set to become a lot stronger by then. Dry and fairly warm air will therefore be supplied for the time being with an increasing northeast or easterly wind. With a lot of sun, the temperature rises almost daily in the afternoon to 22 degrees in the north of the country and to 25 or 26 degrees in parts of Zeeland and in Brabant and Limburg. Summer temperatures are also sometimes possible in the Achterhoek and Twente. In contrast to the previous warm period, it now cools down well in the evening and night. With a few windows open, the heat accumulated during the day can partly leave the house during the night. Also, it won’t heat up as quickly in the early morning. In that regard, it is already good to notice that high summer is really over.

As soon as the center of the high pressure area shifts to the east, we see a low pressure area very quickly appear near Iceland. However, according to the most current weather models, this weather system is incapable of driving the high-pressure areas off the map. In fact, the high above northern Europe will receive help from another high pressure area on the ocean this weekend. Both pressure systems start working together and as soon as they reach out to each other, the depression is driven south. The low pressure area has nowhere to go this weekend and ensures that the wind will blow even more from the southeast or even south. The American weather computers in particular expect even higher temperatures. Even a tropical peak of 30 degrees in the south of the country is not excluded.

Satellite image from this Monday afternoon. It is warm south of our country, so if the wind blows from the south, it can also get a lot warmer. Incidentally, we are already seeing some thunderstorms over the southwest of France and the extreme north of Spain.

In the warm air, especially in Spain and Portugal, rain and thunderstorms will easily develop at the end of this week. The question then, of course, is whether those showers will also shift towards the Netherlands or perhaps even arise in our environment. It might be a bit early to answer that. The American weather model allows the showers to penetrate our surroundings a bit more easily and so in addition to a maximum temperature of about 30 degrees, also a few rain and thunderstorms on offer. In the European ECMWF, the synoptic situation is broadly the same, but in detail we do see small differences, especially when it comes to showers. At the ECMWF, any showers have less tendency to penetrate to the Benelux. The details will become clear in the coming days, so that we can possibly see a spectacular race by Max Verstappen on the circuit in Zandvoort during a heavy (thunder) shower or that it will simply be dry, sunny and warm on Sunday afternoon.

According to the most recent printout of the US weather model (NCEP/GFS), we can expect a tropical maximum temperature of 30 degrees or even more in much of the country on Sunday. The European ECMWF is also slightly less warm for Sunday.

Another local storm in the short term

By the way, before any showers can penetrate our country this weekend, there is also a possibility in the short term that some rain will fall in a (small) part of the country. In the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, a small area of ​​low pressure moves eastwards fairly quickly over the southernmost part of the Benelux and the north of France. A few showers develop near the core of the low pressure area, possibly even with thunderstorms. Most weather models now indicate that some showers are possible, especially in the Belgian Ardennes, but Limburg can also just get one or two copies of it.

A few showers may pass in the southeast of the country during the night from Tuesday to Wednesday. Responsible for this is a small low-pressure area that moves just south of our country to the east.

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